The Week Ahead: 2025-01-05

Will see what the markets do as people get back from holiday

Bonds

Bonds didn’t do much last week other than probe the prior week's range. I like how it is attempting to begin to firm up but does look like it will try to tap the next lower target at 111^26.

Should be late in [V] of c of (b)

Crude Oil

The idea of a lower degree two while technically alive is not looking very good. Instead, I have to favor ii or more likely everything for the approximately two years is a (b) wave triangle.

The (b) wave triangle is looking better

Dollar Index

Finally seeing DX stall and will see how much retrace it can manage over the next few weeks.

Allowing for a few weeks of retrace

Euro

Euro made a new low last week as it tested an initial target level for a wave (iii) but I expect wave (iii) still has some life in it but probably consolidates in a ‘iv of (iii).’ Best to allow for at least a few weeks of bounce or sideways prior to another push down to complete wave (iii).

Allowing for a consol

Gold

Is the lower high set in gold? Promising as we have seen several weeks of GC under 2696. Bears need GC to break under 2601.25 for the magic to begin to happen.

Looking good for bears

S&P 500

SPX held the 5814 support last week and thus I have to allow bulls a chance to retest or make a new high. On lower time frames, I have speculated on an ending diagonal that runs the clock into around the US presidential inauguration setting up a possible ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ type trade.

Bulls still have a shot at a new high

Bitcoin Futures

BTC futures are recovering after a couple of soft weeks. Overall looks positive for one more high like the equity indices in late January.

Bulls have a shot at a new high