The Week Ahead: 2025-04-20
Tesla and Alphabet earnings this week
Bonds
Bonds are holding, even bouncing a little last week. I still like higher into the fourth quarter of the year but need to recover 115^01 for confirmation. The RSI is resetting but not quite at the bottom of the range.
Crude Oil
Nice move up in CL last week which is probably the early stages of a wave ii bounce. The move shouldn’t be a straight line, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the lows are retested if not beat by a bit before the end of wave ii, maybe around the end of May.
Dollar Index
DX had some follow-through lower last week and is now down to the next major support zone at 98.26. Could it go lower? Of course, but I would caution against being short unless DX starts to spend time under 97.70.
Euro
Euro likewise made a new price extreme last week and is now at the lower end of a target range spanning 1.1574 to 1.1670. A good place to manage if long but too aggressive to fade prior to some stalling behavior on a lower time frame.
Gold
With the composite cycle at an inflection point this week, the trader that enjoys living dangerously might try an extremely aggressive fade near 3422.40. A more prudent approach is to look for signs of intraday reversal after 3422.40 is tested.
S&P 500
Last week was an inside week at the upper end of the range from the week before. I still favor an attempt higher before another push down that will more seriously challenge the current low. Bigger picture, I expect back and forth with net higher into May, perhaps June at which point we will see if bear begin to flex again in a serious way.
Short-term, looking at the futures in the very early hours of Monday, we see a retest of 5262.00 support zone. I favor a rise out of here but if they spend time under 5262.00, I suppose it prudent to let them try to test 5198.25.
Bitcoin Futures
Expect something similar in BTC as the S&P 500, a choppy rise into perhaps June to for a lower high. BTC futures look likely to push over 88520 this week though I doubt that is a green light to shoot for 97020 or higher just yet. 91880 could be a waypoint that stalls this leg of the advance prior to another retrace.
