The Week Ahead: 2025-07-07
Tariff speculation probably dominates the week
Bonds
ZB has done reasonably well over the past two months bouncing up off of 109^27 but probably needs to now build a base for a higher low prior to any further advance. The faster of the two cycles on this weekly chart has its next inflection near the end of this month and thus may experience some sideways to lower price action till then.
Crude Oil
Probably need to allow crude to bounce a bit but as I have mentioned in prior posts, I’ve given up on a new high in (b) and think any bounce now results in a lower high.
Dollar Index
While the next big cycle inflection is still two weeks away, I think there is a risk of the DX low already being set.
Euro
With the current negative divergence on the RSI at this high, I have doubts that the advance can continue till the next inflection of the composite cycle in August. Perhaps the August inflection turns into a lower high.
Gold
Gold is tricky. Base case is for a thrust up to retest or make a new high but if DX and Euro do reverse here, gold may not make it to a new high.
S&P 500
The next targets overhead are 30 to 40 points above the close from last week. I do worry about things going wrong this week with the tariff deadline coming up.
Bitcoin Futures
It would be nice to get a clean new high in the next couple of weeks to set the top of the swing.
