The Week Ahead: 2025-07-14

Bank earnings, CPI, and PPI this week

Bonds

The goal for bond bulls is to form a higher low over the next week or two as the cycles bottom out.

Need a higher low to form

Crude Oil

CL is bouncing as expected. Expectation is for a lower high to form between now and early August.

Working on a lower high

Dollar Index

I lean towards the low being set in DX and that at a minimum a deep retrace up is due though you could argue that there is still a chance at a retest of supports that occurs over the next couple of weeks.

Low set?

Euro

If the high is not already set in Euro, it is very close.

High could be set

Gold

Gold has been sideways since April. Base case is for a thrust up out of this consolidation, but I worry about a stealthy top being set last month where a new weekly high on a closing basis was set. Important for bulls to push up over 3979.30 soon or lose their chance at a new high.

Bulls need to act or lose their chance at a new high

S&P 500

I can’t rule out higher in SPX, but I do think it pretty late in the advance up from the April low.

Late in a v off the April low

As to today, futures have been in a range since July 3rd. One could argue for an aggressive high being set on July 10th, but I don’t think the pattern is conclusive so open to higher while above 6205.50. The first goal for today is probably to attempt to fill the overhead gap from the Friday close.

Probably works on filling the overhead gap

BTC Futures

I think it a good place to start managing BTC if you are long, maybe even take some profits as price nears the range of 122840 to 124100. Could it go higher? Of course, though not a sure thing.

A good place to manage