The Week Ahead: 2025-10-27
Busy week with FOMC, earnings, and trade news
Bonds
Mostly pleased with the way ZB is holding up. I’ve been a little worried about the RSI being elevated but as long as price holds up, it can reset over time.
Crude Oil
My worry about a crude bounce was well placed as CL had a decent lift up from the 56.00 area. I’ll change my lower time frame counts to call the recent low ‘[B] of ii’ and now up in ‘[C] of ii.’ I don’t know how long the bounce lasts. The next fast weekly cycle inflection is November 21st, and the next long cycle inflection is in early February.
Dollar Index
The idea of a basing process still looks good to me and may even be done with the past couple weeks of sideways action.
Euro
Nothing has changed for the past several weeks. Not clear if the high is in or not. If the Euro begins to spend time under 1.1646, odds of being in the early stages of a reversal lower increase.
Gold
Gold failing to hold above 4143 is a minor negative but bulls still have hope as long as they defend 4010. From a momentum perspective, bulls expect a consolidation and a new high. However, it is worth noting that commodities are more prone to blowoffs and sharp reversals so be careful if you are a gold bug.
S&P 500
I can’t force myself to be excited about the S&P 500 and it seems like every day that ends in ‘y’ leads to yet another high. Plenty of news this week that can stir the pot so will be flexible. As bearish as I want to be, I’d say the odds of any pullback being only a consolidation and not the real reversal are increasing as the next major cycle inflection is early next year.
Dropping down a few time frames, I wonder if the is an ending diagonal up off the August low?
Bitcoin Futures
I expect bad things to happen in BTC but can’t pound the table that it has started just yet as they could easily trade sideways with a mild upward drift for several weeks.
