The Week Ahead: 2026-03-03
Geopolitics the big driver, though there is economic data late in the week
Bonds
I’m reasonably happy with how bonds have been performing but it is probably wise to allow for several weeks of sideways or down to allow the overbought RSI to reset. Bigger picture the two main scenarios remain the same, either early in this leg of a correction up, the primary scenario, or the last few years have all been corrective and there is a new low somewhere out later this year to complete (V) of [i or a] which is the alternate.
Crude Oil
Geopolitical events over the weekend forces me to change my wave count by moving the (b) wave from late June of last year to the right to the high that is forming now. And yes, I think it will be a major high that is likely to endure for 12-18 months once complete. Could it be complete this week? Maybe but I give it a window out to the end of the month as long as price remains above 70.70. I think we are much more likely to see under $50 crude before $100 crude.
Dollar Index
On one hand, I’m happy to see DX climbing out of the hole, on the other, the form left behind isn’t ideal. It’s possible that we are still stuck in a corrective formation and get another low, but considering how hated the DX has been, I’m not willing to count on it.
Euro
Good to see Euro leaning on 1.1569. I’m assuming we are in the early stages of a wave [v] down. I’d feel better about it after some time is spent under 1.1569.
Gold
As much as I would like to pound the table for the gold high being set, it is probably premature to do so while GC is above 5042.70.
S&P 500
Once again, the S&P 500 steps up to the cliff and backs away. Can bad things start to happen? Absolutely and I fully expect them to but is it taking place right now? That I can’t say. As much as it pains me, as it is, we could still get another high out SPX before the house of cards collapses.
Bitcoin Futures
If BTC hasn’t yet started a bounce that can be substantive, it should be close.
