The Week Ahead: 2026-09-15
FOMC week
Bonds
I can’t rule out slightly higher in in ZB, but I think it likely that bonds go into a choppy consolidation prior to moving up again early next year.
Crude Oil
CL bounced from the expected target zone for a [B] wave low and thus now allowing for a rise in ‘[C] of ii’. What I’m less certain about is how long it takes for that [C] to develop. It is possible that the [C] takes place quickly, say the next couple of weeks, and that the next cycle inflection turns into a low as crude falls in the early stages of ‘iii’.
Dollar Index
I had been warning that a new low may be in store for DX, and it looks like that is playing out. That said, I still remain bullish in the medium term, but we need to get this low set first.
Euro
Same idea here in Euro but the inverse. The next cycle inflection is early in October and thus think that will set a minor new high to complete (ii) or will be a lower high which then drives Euro lower into November.
Gold
Gold finally broke up to a new swing high last week. I think this is extremely late in the development of the of form up from the low from last October.
S&P 500
Last week, the S&P 500 recovered the drop from the week before and now should be moving toward a fresh high. How long do we have for this new high to develop? I think we need to be alert for anything between this week and early October.
Bitcoin Futures
I think we are looking for a lower high to develop in the next week or three against 63760 or 66960.
