The Week Ahead: PM Edition 2024-09-29
Still have divergence between the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100
Bonds
ZB was down in the past week but looks like it is firming up which is consistent with my forecast on faster time frames. I expect back and forth for several months with net slightly lower or sideways.
Crude Oil
I’ve been thinking about crude oil and decided to back up and take a look at the big picture. Here is a monthly chart.
So far, the retrace in crude has been pretty shallow in the grand scheme of things as it has gone sideways for nearly two years. I think this is all a (b) wave consolidation prior to an eventual push down in ‘(c) of [ii or b]’.
Where are we in (b)? I argue pretty late if not already complete. I’m sticking with my current wave count where CL is already technically in the very early stages of (c) down, just hasn’t broken lower with force yet. I think we should be alert in the next few weeks for an important inflection.
Dollar Index
Very little change in DX last week other than it is slipping under 100.60. I still think we are inching closer to an important inflection point that I think will set an important low.
Euro
Euro is holding up so far but has yet to poke over 1.1261. The next cycle inflection points are early October and mid-November.
Gold
Did gold set a high last week with the pop over and drop under 2675.10? Maybe. Bears need to see gold spending time under 2675 and we may have to wait till the next cycle inflection next week though I think we are in the window now.
S&P 500
Another week with a new high though I still contend that the market is in a precarious position. Can it go higher? Yes, maybe into next week as that is the next composite inflection point and something we have seen in other markets. Do I think it must go higher? No.
E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures
Note that the NQ is still on a lower high and with a doji on the weekly candle. I see this divergence as a problem for the equity markets.
Bitcoin Futures
The primary hypothesis has been the BTC is working on a lower high which looks to be working out. Any drop of BTC under 63760 will be a signal that the wave (ii) could be complete.
