The Week Ahead: PM Edition 2024-10-06
FOMC minutes, CPI and PPI
Bonds
ZB was soft last week but I’m sticking with the idea of a wave ‘iv of (c)’ retrace taking place right now. I think it likely ZB will firm up between 120^31 and 119^09
Crude Oil
CL had a strong week last week, but I think that was marking the end of something versus the start of something, namely a ‘[C] of ii.’ As to timing, anything this month falls in a possible window.
Dollar Index
DX finally showing signs of life. Next step is to push up through 102.60.
Euro
Promising move down in Euro last week after it failed to press to a new high. There may be a little chop between 1.1045 and 1.0945 prior to making an attempt at 1.0740.
Gold
Another week with gold stalling around 2675. I really would like to say it is all clear for bears to short but that is very aggressive as geopolitical headlines are holding gold up for now. Would be bears need GC to drop under 2616.75 to get a retrace or more started.
S&P 500
SPX held again last week. I still think SPX is extremely late in the move up from October of last year. The cycle composite has an inflection point this week.
Bitcoin Futures
Bitcoin certainly had a reaction to the 66960 area, but I wouldn’t call it decisive yet. Probably need to see BTC futures push down away from 63760 to feel better about a reversal down instead of holding it as now.
